It is fitting during a week where a lot of the discussion has been about Ryder Cup captain's picks and whether the United States got them correct last year in Rome that one of those captain's picks, Justin Thomas, went out and shot one of his best rounds all year at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club.
J.T. posted an 8-under 62 -- one off the course record of 61, which is held by multiple players -- to lead Sungjae Im by one and everyone else by two or more after 18 holes of play in North Berwick, Scotland. It was an approach play bonanza for Thomas, who gained nearly three shots on the field in that category and had eight birdies in the process.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 11, 2024Most @PGATOUR rounds with 8+ birdies/eagles since beginning of 2014 season:
Justin Thomas, 54 (includes today)
Jordan Spieth, 48
Tony Finau, 39
Hideki Matsuyama, 35
"I'm confident when I get in that mode," said Thomas. "I feel like, obviously, this is as easy as you're going to get a links golf course weather-wise and conditions. When you drive it well like I did for the most part today, you have a lot of short clubs and I see nothing but the pin. You have opportunities to get the ball close with some slopes, but if I have a good number, for the most part, I'm trying to figure out how I can hit it as close as possible. I'm not scared to do so.
"So I just kind of try to keep the pedal down, but it's also something that I definitely had to learn, I feel like."
Let's take a closer look at his round in context, who's chasing him and how this could play out over the next several days.
The leaders
1. Justin Thomas (-8)
2. Sungjae Im (-7)
This is the first time Thomas has led after any round of a PGA Tour event since winning the 2022 PGA Championship, and his struggles since have been well-documented. What has been less well-documented, however, is the fact that he's been playing tremendous golf for much of 2024.
While he's not quite back to the 2017-2022 Thomas, he's certainly way ahead of last year's version. Thomas has finished in the top 10 in three of his last six starts and has gained strokes from tee to green in nine of his last 10 tournaments.
The major championship play has still not been where he wants it, but the trajectory he's on is excellent.
The other thing is that he's been terrible at Open Championships in his career. And while the Renaissance Club does not produce a traditional Open Championship-like test, it's intriguing that he's playing well here so far. I suspect it's because the test is more aerial, where Thomas seems to thrive. How that plays out not only the rest of this week but next week at Royal Troon as well will be a key storyline.
Other contenders
T3. Maximilian Kieffer, Haotong Li, Thomas Detry, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Lower (-6)
T8. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Davis Thompson, Alex Noren, Alex Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa (-5)
There are a shocking number of golfers -- 20 total -- at 5 or 6 under after the first round, but these are the most prominent names. The one that stands out is Morikawa, who has probably been playing the best golf of anyone who is not being regularly talked about of anyone in the world.
Morikawa has not finished outside the top 16 at an individual stroke play event since the Texas Open the week before the Masters. Since then, it's been almost flawless play. He has lost strokes in three strokes gained categories in eight tournaments (so 56 total categorical opportunities) since then. Three!
There has been a level of consistency there that was not present at the beginning of the season.
It remains to be seen whether he can handle nasty weather in Scotland that sometimes rolls in, but he has been better in the wind of late, specifically at Augusta National where he finished T3 despite some of the strongest gusts that tournament has ever seen.
He is one of the three or four most intriguing storylines for me both at this event and next week at The Open. I'm not sure it will feel this way, but not winning at any point this season will probably seem like a big miss to him given the level at which he's currently playing.
1-in-10,000
When Åberg's ball hit Morikawa's on the 8th hole on Thursday in the first round, it was said on the broadcast that this was a 1-in-10,000 shot. I have no idea whether that's true, but watching it happen was certainly jarring. It also affected the leaderboard as Åberg walked away with a bogey that probably should have been a par or perhaps better. His 64 could have been something even lower.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 11, 2024A unique shot explained.
Rule 9.6 | Ball lifted or moved by outside influence
If it is known or virtually certain that an outside influence (including another player in stroke play or another ball) lifter or moved a player's ball at rest:
• There is no penalty
• The ball… pic.twitter.com/xEUwAQrK2L
"It's just one of them, I felt like I hit a good shot," said Åberg."It was probably going to be, what, 12 feet, something like that where Collin was. You can't see the ball, or the flagstick, from the fairway. We saw the ball shoot off to the right, and I didn't really realize what it hit.
"I've never seen it before. Probably not going to see it for a long time again, but it's just one of them."
2024 Scottish Open updated odds, picks
- Rory McIlroy: 11/2
- Justin Thomas: 11/2
- Ludvig Aberg: 13/2
- Sungjae Im: 9-1
- Collin Morikawa: 11-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 14-1
- Thomas Detry: 18-1
- Davis Thompson: 28-1
- Corey Conners: 28-1
Given the caliber of player at the top of this board, it would be surprising if one of these golfers did not go on to win the tournament. If that's true, then I love Morikawa at 11-1, Fleetwood at 14-1 and Thompson at 28-1. It seems improbable that somebody like Thompson could win two weeks in a row, but I'm not sure the lines have caught up with his quality of play. Data Golf has him ranked as a top 20 golfer in the world right now, and honestly that might be a little bit low.
