Fantasy football: Ten players who'll out/underperform projections in NFL Week 12 (2024)

Higher or Lower

Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.

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HIGHER

Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers LAC · QB

VS.

Baltimore Ravens

7-4

PROJECTED POINTS: 16.3

Michelle: Chargers OC Greg Roman finally realized he is working with an elite quarterback and has started to utilize him as such. After a slow start to the season, Herbert is now averaging 21.9 points per game since Week 8 -- he has scored two touchdowns and at least 19 fantasy points in each of those four games. The biggest added bonus has come from Herbert's legs, as he has put up 148 yards on the ground over the last four weeks after having just 34 total rushing yards in Weeks 1-7.

The Ravens' defense just played well against Russell Wilson and the Steelers' inconsistent offense, but I don't expect that to be the unit's new norm. Baltimore has allowed 21 passing touchdowns and 20.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024, both third-most in the NFL. Since Week 5, Joe Burrow (twice), Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston have each scored at least 21 fantasy points against the Ravens.

Bo Nix

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Denver Broncos DEN · QB

AT

Las Vegas Raiders

2-8

PROJECTED POINTS: 14.9

Matt: Nix dished out four touchdown passes last week en route to a 28.8-point fantasy performance. He's scored fewer than 15 just once in his last seven games and has averaged 22.6 points per game over the last month. Since first playing the Raiders in Week 5 -- when he scored 23.14 points, by the way -- Nix has five games with multiple touchdown passes, tied for the most in the league.

To top it all off, Nix gets a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in NFL Pro's overall passing efficiency and has allowed 18.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This projection feels a whole touchdown short, and I have Nix as a top-six QB this week.

James Conner

Arizona Cardinals ARI · RB

AT

Seattle Seahawks

5-5

PROJECTED POINTS: 14.4

Matt: Conner has topped 14.4 fantasy points in each of his last four games and piled up 100-plus scrimmage yards in five of the past seven. Now he's drawing a matchup with a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in NFL Pro's overall rushing efficiency.

Sunday's game in Seattle projects to be a close, high-scoring affair -- and I, for one, am picking Arizona to win. This has the makings of a multi-TD game for Conner with plenty of opportunity for clock-busting carries in the second half. I have Conner forecasted at RB8 on the week. He's a must-start stud.

Brian Robinson

Washington Commanders WAS · RB

VS.

Dallas Cowboys

3-7

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.9

Michelle: Robinson isn't a flashy player, but he's a consistent fantasy producer when healthy. He has averaged 14.2 fantasy PPG in 2024, scoring at least 13 in four of his last five games played. A touchdown seems to be a lock for him in any given game, as he is averaging 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game this season, tied for fifth-most among running backs (behind only Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery and James Cook).

This is a perfect matchup for Robinson, as the Cowboys have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to RBs in 2024. Their run defense is an abject disaster -- Mixon found the end zone with ease this past Monday in Dallas, scoring three touchdowns.

Ladd McConkey

Los Angeles Chargers LAC · WR

VS.

Baltimore Ravens

7-4

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.4

Matt: Last week, McConkey was projected for 12.7 fantasy points against a weak Bengals defense. I took a confident "Higher" stance, and he capitalized with 18.3 fantasy points on six catches for 123 yards. A week later, the surging rookie has a lower projection in the best WR matchup in fantasy. What are we doing here?

OK, McConkey is dealing with a shoulder issue this week, so we'll have to monitor his status leading up to Monday night's game. But if he's good to go, Ladd's a must-start against this Ravens defense. The now-legendary Baltimore pass funnel has surrendered a league-high 304.6 receiving yards per game and has allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to wideouts (tied with the Texans for most in the league). Justin Herbert is getting hot in Los Angeles (SEE: my colleague's Herbert blurb above), and McConkey is a prime beneficiary. He's a locked-and-loaded WR2 with WR1 upside if he finds the end zone.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Tennessee Titans TEN · WR

AT

Houston Texans

7-4

PROJECTED POINTS: 6.3

Michelle: With DeAndre Hopkins out of town, Westbrook-Ikhine has stepped into a starting role and has not disappointed. Since Week 8, the former undrafted free-agent signee has played 94 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps and is averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. He has scored 16-plus points in two of his last three games and has a touchdown in five of the last six.Only Amon Ra St-Brown and Ja'Marr Chase (seven each) have more receiving touchdowns than Westbrook-Ikhine (five) since Week 6.

The touchdowns should continue to roll in for Westbrook-Ikhine this weekend, as he faces a Texans defense that has allowed the most receiving scores in the NFL to receivers this season. Seven different wideouts have put up at least 17 fantasy points against Houston over the last five weeks.

LOWER

Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts IND · RB

VS.

Detroit Lions

9-1

PROJECTED POINTS: 14.8

Matt: Since returning from injury in Week 8, Taylor has been very hit or miss -- single-digit fantasy performances in two games, 16.5 points per game in the other two. In his two duds, Taylor had just 119 scrimmage yards combined. In the other two contests, he averaged 119.5 yards per game. So the question is: Which Taylor are we getting in Week 12 versus the Lions?

I'm not particularly optimistic against a run defense ranked as NFL Pro's eighth-most effective, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The only RBs to top this projection against Detroit -- Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon -- all had strong days as receivers and found the end zone ... both weak points for Taylor recently. He's still a start in Week 12, but not as a strong RB1.

Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams LAR · RB

VS.

Philadelphia Eagles

8-2

PROJECTED POINTS: 15.7

Michelle: The touchdown luck has vanished for Williams, who hasn't found the end zone on the ground in any of his last four games, after co-leading the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns from Weeks 1-7. Over his last three games, Williams has scored 10.5, 11.2 and 8.6 fantasy points.

Touchdowns will not be easy to come by in this matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed just three rushing touchdowns to running backs this entire season. Philadelphia has allowed just one RB to score 15-plus points against them since Week 4 -- Austin Ekeler, who had just 7 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 11, but caught eight balls for 89 yards.

Tyreek Hill

Miami Dolphins MIA · WR

VS.

New England Patriots

3-8

PROJECTED POINTS: 14.8

Matt: It's time we have a conversation about Tyreek Hill. For a while there, Tua Tagovailoa's absence was a sufficient excuse for Hill's underperformance. Not anymore. Hill -- who, in his defense, is dealing with a wrist injury -- has not had more than 80 receiving yards once since Week 1. And while he's scored in each of the last two weeks, he's still averaged just 14.0 fantasy points per game over the month since Tagovailoa's return.

Impressive young Patriots CB Christian Gonzales shadowed Hill in their Week 5 meeting -- Tyreek had 12.9 fantasy points on 10 targets -- and will likely do so again this Sunday. Obviously, the ever-dangerous Hill just needs to break one play to approach this projection, so it's risky to take the "Lower" ... but I simply don't believe Tyreek is a surefire WR1 right now and want to temper expectations accordingly.

Jakobi Meyers

Las Vegas Raiders LV · WR

VS.

Denver Broncos

6-5

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.7

Michelle: The Raiders have a serious quarterback problem. They are sticking with Gardner Minshew as the starter for now, but I won't be surprised if we see Desmond Ridder enter this game by the third quarter. This makes trusting Meyers in any matchup hard to trust, but it is especially tough to envision he has a good game against Denver's secondary.

Since getting embarrassed by Lamar Jackson in Week 9, the Broncos' defense has completely stepped up its game. Over the last two weeks, Denver shut down the Kansas City and Atlanta offenses, not allowing any wide receiver to record more than 61 yards or score 11 fantasy points. To make his day even harder, Meyers is likely to see a ton of Pat Surtain II in coverage, as he is the only wide receiver left on the Raiders roster for any defense to really worry about.